Somalia vs South Africa: Tropical nights

Tropical nights in 2014: 295.2 nights in Somalia and 27.1 nights in South Africa, in the CMIP6 climate models’ median run. In 2014 the value was higher in Somalia, by 268.1 nights, or 11 times that in South Africa.

Watch it change on the map

nights a year · CMIP6

SomaliaSouth AfricaCMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road)models’ 10th–90th percentile

What the numbers say

Somalia has been higher in every year both have figures for since 1950.
The CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) puts Somalia at 328.2 nights and South Africa at 58.7 nights in 2100.

Every year

nights a year · CMIP6

Year	Somalia	South Africa
2014	295.2	27.1
2013	296.8	28.3
2012	296.7	27.9
2011	297.1	26.1
2010	294.6	26
2009	293.5	25.8
2008	292.2	24.8
2007	293.3	24.7
2006	292.4	25.5
2005	292.3	25.3
2004	293.8	25.8
2003	293.5	25.1
2002	292.1	25
2001	292.4	24.5
2000	290.2	23.3
1999	288.6	23
1998	289.9	23.4
1997	288.8	22.5
1996	285	20.4
1995	285.2	19.3
1994	284.2	20
1993	280.2	18.1
1992	278.1	18.1
1991	286.6	22.3
1990	288.5	22.7
1989	285.1	22
1988	285.6	21.2
1987	282.5	21.9
1986	283.4	21
1985	279.6	18.9
1984	281.4	20
1983	277.1	19
1982	283.7	20.3
1981	282.5	20
1980	280	21.2
1979	280.4	19.9
1978	280.5	19.8
1977	282.9	19.2
1976	278.7	19.2
1975	276.8	18.8
1974	279.3	19.7
1973	280.8	19.6
1972	278.3	19
1971	278.2	19.1
1970	278.3	18.6
1969	276.8	18.7
1968	276.3	17.8
1967	274.3	17.5
1966	275.9	17.8
1965	275.2	17.2
1964	275.1	14.9
1963	272.9	16.5
1962	277.9	19.6
1961	280.3	19.7
1960	280.8	19.8
1959	278.8	18.5
1958	280.9	19.3
1957	280.3	19.4
1956	276.1	18
1955	280.1	19.5
1954	278.2	18.4
1953	277.2	18.4
1952	279.4	19.3
1951	279	18.9
1950	278.8	18.1

CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) · 2015–2100

Year	Somalia	South Africa
2015	299.3283.7–311	28.620–39.5
2016	296.8282.3–308.3	26.817.8–37.9
2017	299.6284.6–310.1	28.919.6–37.8
2018	301.3287.9–310.2	29.620.6–40.6
2019	299.1286.1–311.9	29.820.8–41.5
2020	299.4285.3–310.3	29.518.9–39.1
2021	302.4289.1–313.6	31.121.4–42.9
2022	304.5289.7–314.6	3223.7–43.1
2023	304.1290.6–312.4	31.922.9–41.8
2024	303.4290.1–317	3324–45.6
2025	303.1288.8–317.8	31.920.7–44.5
2026	303.2288.7–315.4	34.521.9–46.9
2027	303.8287.7–314.9	34.423–47.7
2028	305.4291.3–316.8	33.522.9–46
2029	307.8294–317.8	36.226.5–48.3
2030	304.5289.6–314.9	36.124.9–49
2031	307.4292.3–317.9	36.324.5–50.3
2032	308.3292.4–319.6	36.424.5–49.2
2033	307.2292–317.6	36.924.5–48.3
2034	305.9292.3–321.2	37.626.4–51.8
2035	308.7293.4–321.1	37.625.2–49.5
2036	307.5295.4–317.7	3826.5–50.5
2037	310.1298.4–319.9	39.928.2–53.4
2038	311.1296.4–323.2	41.528.4–54.2
2039	308.6295.9–321.9	39.227–52.9
2040	311.7295.9–324.2	38.125.6–55.6
2041	312296.6–321.5	40.227.4–54.3
2042	311.7295–325.7	4229–56.4
2043	312298–323.1	42.128.2–58.4
2044	311.4297.3–323	41.929.5–57.8
2045	312.3298.6–323	42.728.2–59
2046	314.4299–327.7	44.130–59.5
2047	315.8300.2–327.9	44.630.7–61.2
2048	316.9302.8–327.5	4531.9–61.5
2049	314.9303.2–325.2	45.632.3–61.4
2050	315.9300.6–324.5	46.931–63.6
2051	314.9301.9–326.9	47.532–65
2052	316.2301.6–329	48.332.7–64.3
2053	314.8302.3–326.8	45.733.7–62.1
2054	316.2301.5–330.1	4833.3–64.3
2055	317.4302.7–327.8	46.833–68.4
2056	316.5302.9–332.3	47.933.2–64.8
2057	316.8302.5–329.8	50.232.6–68.9
2058	316.9300.7–330.9	47.934–66.4
2059	320.8305.2–332.5	51.333.1–66.9
2060	321.3305.7–331.9	51.936–69.9
2061	317.8304.8–330.3	50.534.8–71.3
2062	319.6304.3–336	50.532.7–71
2063	320.9305.3–332	50.434.3–69.7
2064	319.7306.8–330.5	5134.1–67.7
2065	318.3304.6–334.6	50.433.6–70.2
2066	321307.9–333.9	5335.7–72.4
2067	320.5304.3–334.4	50.634.8–70.4
2068	321.7305.6–336.3	54.837.8–72.5
2069	322.3308.6–335.4	54.339.1–73.4
2070	321.1305.3–335.6	54.337.2–73.3
2071	324.5308.4–336.9	55.837.9–76.9
2072	324.1308.2–334.1	5639.4–78.6
2073	323.7308.1–337.9	60.443.4–80.3
2074	322306–334.6	57.439.1–75.3
2075	323.6307.6–336.4	56.137.7–76
2076	323.6309–333.3	58.538.4–75.3
2077	324.2309.6–335.9	57.341–80.5
2078	324.7310.1–333.7	5639.5–79
2079	323.2307.6–336.3	57.639.3–78
2080	324.7310.6–337.8	59.540.3–80.9
2081	323.2311.1–335.3	5841.5–79.6
2082	324.3309.4–336.4	58.839.7–77.7
2083	323.6308.3–342.4	60.839.1–82.9
2084	326.2309.4–337.5	62.540.4–82.9
2085	327.7311.9–339.4	60.741.3–87.6
2086	326.6311.1–340.2	60.542.1–83.3
2087	327.3311.5–339.1	57.941–82.9
2088	328.6308.2–341.6	64.243.4–85.3
2089	326.7312–340.2	61.541.3–81.2
2090	326.5311.7–339.5	61.641.5–86.8
2091	328.6311.5–340.9	63.341.6–86.3
2092	329.1312.2–341.8	63.144.9–84.8
2093	327.3312.1–342.8	62.443.2–86.1
2094	325.6312–336.2	63.145.6–87.4
2095	329314–341.2	65.342.6–91.7
2096	327.9311.6–341.9	6142.7–90.1
2097	325.6311–340	58.841.2–84.6
2098	327.7311.4–341.1	65.143.8–89.8
2099	327.3311.9–339.3	64.345–87
2100	328.2313.4–341.2	58.742–88.2

Each country on its own

Good to know

Nights in a year when the temperature stays above 20 °C, averaged over the country.
Source: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal, CMIP6 multi-model median.
The dashed line is the CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road), a scenario rather than a forecast; the band is its models’ 10th–90th percentile.
Climate model values are the median of the CMIP6 models, run on past emissions to 2014 and on SSP2-4.5, a middle-of-the-road path, after: they are not measurements.

How the layers work, where their data comes from and what they can’t tell you: Countries through time

Somalia vs South Africa: Tropical nights

What the numbers say

Every year

Each country on its own

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