Tropical nights in Bulgaria

Tropical nights in Bulgaria: 2.9 nights in 1950 and 9.4 nights in 2014, in the CMIP6 climate models’ median run.

Latest, 2014: 9.4 nights; Modelled
Since 1950: +6.4 nights
Projected, 2100: 46.1 nights; CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road)

Watch it change on the map

nights a year · CMIP6

CMIP6 historical run, model medianCMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road)models’ 10th–90th percentile

What the numbers say

The CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) puts it at 46.1 nights in 2100, between 23 nights and 66.7 nights (models’ 10th–90th percentile).
The highest was 9.6 nights in 2011, the lowest 1.7 nights in 1967.

Every year

nights a year · CMIP6

Year	Bulgaria
2014	9.4
2013	8.7
2012	8.4
2011	9.6
2010	8.6
2009	7.6
2008	7.5
2007	6.4
2006	8.4
2005	6.1
2004	6.8
2003	6.5
2002	5.7
2001	6.1
2000	7
1999	5.7
1998	3.9
1997	3.9
1996	4
1995	3.5
1994	3.1
1993	2.7
1992	1.8
1991	3.4
1990	3.7
1989	3.6
1988	2.1
1987	2.3
1986	3.4
1985	2.3
1984	2.3
1983	2.1
1982	1.9
1981	2
1980	2
1979	2.5
1978	2.3
1977	2
1976	2.1
1975	2.6
1974	1.9
1973	1.8
1972	1.9
1971	2.6
1970	1.8
1969	2.1
1968	2.3
1967	1.7
1966	2.1
1965	1.8
1964	1.8
1963	2.1
1962	2.3
1961	2.2
1960	3.2
1959	3
1958	3.1
1957	2.3
1956	2.6
1955	3.1
1954	2.3
1953	3.1
1952	3
1951	2.7
1950	2.9

CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) · 2015–2100

Year	Bulgaria
2015	12.34.7–21.7
2016	11.72.9–21.6
2017	11.23.5–23.1
2018	11.63.6–23.7
2019	12.15.3–19.7
2020	15.45.1–25.5
2021	12.35.7–20.2
2022	12.95.8–26.9
2023	14.25.3–26.2
2024	15.95.4–26.8
2025	16.45.1–27.5
2026	17.85.5–26.7
2027	14.44.4–27.9
2028	14.97.6–26.9
2029	19.49.8–31.7
2030	16.49.6–26.8
2031	18.69.3–29.5
2032	21.79.3–33.7
2033	20.210.3–32.2
2034	20.210–30.3
2035	22.68.6–35.9
2036	21.111.3–36.3
2037	22.310.5–34.2
2038	21.211.2–41.5
2039	23.712.3–35.9
2040	23.68.9–36.6
2041	21.712.3–37.7
2042	24.510.5–39.5
2043	23.814–38.5
2044	24.99.8–41.3
2045	24.810.5–40.2
2046	24.39.1–44.3
2047	26.612.3–41.7
2048	31.69.8–44.3
2049	27.810.1–42.5
2050	28.512.4–42.4
2051	27.914.7–42.4
2052	26.715.1–40.4
2053	29.920.3–41.2
2054	31.116.8–43.7
2055	30.912.4–48
2056	27.813.6–43.4
2057	30.714.7–45.6
2058	32.913.6–54
2059	30.111.8–47.1
2060	30.418.4–46.8
2061	3415.3–49.4
2062	33.415.5–49.6
2063	33.316.1–52.2
2064	3219.4–46.3
2065	36.119.2–49.3
2066	33.817.4–50.1
2067	36.720.1–53.7
2068	38.918.4–50.6
2069	34.718.6–54.6
2070	35.119.1–55.2
2071	36.315.4–53.7
2072	39.621.5–61
2073	36.817–51.6
2074	36.221.8–55
2075	35.517.1–56.1
2076	39.917.5–56.6
2077	38.921–55.7
2078	40.622.3–58.8
2079	43.716.2–63
2080	41.922.6–58
2081	3721.7–54
2082	41.821.3–62.8
2083	41.120.6–60.6
2084	44.928–58.4
2085	42.324.6–55.6
2086	45.722.3–60.9
2087	45.221.9–66.5
2088	45.226.7–64.5
2089	42.522.3–63.6
2090	46.928.7–62.3
2091	47.425.9–63.8
2092	43.921.1–63.8
2093	43.520.2–67.4
2094	45.826.7–68.8
2095	47.521.4–61.3
2096	44.419.9–69.3
2097	47.621.2–64.6
2098	45.822.5–65.4
2099	45.221.5–62.5
2100	46.123–66.7

Good to know

Nights in a year when the temperature stays above 20 °C, averaged over the country.
Source: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal, CMIP6 multi-model median.
The dashed line is the CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road), a scenario rather than a forecast; the band is its models’ 10th–90th percentile.
Climate model values are the median of the CMIP6 models, run on past emissions to 2014 and on SSP2-4.5, a middle-of-the-road path, after: they are not measurements.

How the layers work, where their data comes from and what they can’t tell you: Countries through time

Tropical nights in Bulgaria

What the numbers say

Every year

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