Tropical nights in Serbia

Tropical nights in Serbia: 1.6 nights in 1950 and 7.7 nights in 2014, in the CMIP6 climate models’ median run.

Latest, 2014: 7.7 nights; Modelled
Since 1950: +6.1 nights
Projected, 2100: 39.4 nights; CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road)

Watch it change on the map

nights a year · CMIP6

CMIP6 historical run, model medianCMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road)models’ 10th–90th percentile

What the numbers say

The CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) puts it at 39.4 nights in 2100, between 18.3 nights and 56.7 nights (models’ 10th–90th percentile).
The highest was 8.3 nights in 2011, the lowest 0.7 nights in 1973.

Every year

nights a year · CMIP6

Year	Serbia
2014	7.7
2013	5.4
2012	6.9
2011	8.3
2010	8
2009	7
2008	6.1
2007	4.3
2006	6.3
2005	4.8
2004	5.2
2003	5.2
2002	3.5
2001	3.7
2000	5.4
1999	3.9
1998	3.1
1997	2.8
1996	3.8
1995	3.1
1994	2.5
1993	1.9
1992	1.2
1991	2.8
1990	2.4
1989	2.2
1988	1.4
1987	1.6
1986	2
1985	1.4
1984	1.4
1983	1.6
1982	0.9
1981	1.1
1980	1.9
1979	1.1
1978	1.7
1977	1
1976	1.1
1975	2
1974	1.2
1973	0.7
1972	0.9
1971	1.1
1970	1.4
1969	1.6
1968	1.2
1967	1.1
1966	1.1
1965	0.9
1964	1.2
1963	1.2
1962	1.5
1961	0.9
1960	1.6
1959	2.5
1958	1.7
1957	1.3
1956	2
1955	2.5
1954	1
1953	2.9
1952	2.5
1951	1.5
1950	1.6

CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) · 2015–2100

Year	Serbia
2015	8.23.7–17.7
2016	8.42–17.1
2017	8.71.7–18.3
2018	7.72–19.2
2019	93.2–18.9
2020	12.12.4–21.3
2021	8.94.2–18.1
2022	122.8–23.4
2023	10.42.6–21.4
2024	12.72.8–25.2
2025	12.71.8–22.2
2026	14.73.8–23
2027	11.42.4–22.1
2028	124.4–24.8
2029	154–30.5
2030	12.54.4–22.2
2031	12.65.4–23.5
2032	14.95.2–37
2033	14.13.9–23.5
2034	15.22.6–29.6
2035	17.74.2–30
2036	17.96.2–31
2037	17.55.9–27.4
2038	16.56.2–36.5
2039	17.96–27.4
2040	18.46.7–31.2
2041	16.95.7–31.9
2042	16.86.8–33
2043	19.59.7–31.5
2044	18.57.8–33.6
2045	215.1–32.4
2046	20.16.1–40.6
2047	22.49.5–38.1
2048	21.68–41.5
2049	21.76.5–35.2
2050	238.6–36.1
2051	20.77.5–37.6
2052	228–36.3
2053	21.410.4–34.5
2054	2412.4–37
2055	24.29.7–43.4
2056	20.611–37.8
2057	22.18.2–34.2
2058	28.37.7–48.4
2059	23.78.4–42.9
2060	22.713.8–37.7
2061	27.212.4–41.6
2062	23.910.1–41.6
2063	2810.9–46.9
2064	26.711.7–40.5
2065	287.8–41.4
2066	24.612.9–42.6
2067	31.313.6–51.6
2068	30.519–42.4
2069	28.614.3–44.8
2070	27.811.6–51
2071	28.87.5–50.7
2072	32.615.5–49.8
2073	29.213.6–43.8
2074	26.914.3–46.3
2075	2915–46.1
2076	32.510.9–52.1
2077	30.615.7–48
2078	30.316.5–54.6
2079	35.514.1–60.7
2080	32.317.9–52.6
2081	29.313.4–50.2
2082	34.518.9–58.4
2083	28.69.8–49.1
2084	34.518.3–49.7
2085	35.216.9–50.2
2086	35.316.1–53.7
2087	34.913.7–58.5
2088	36.117.6–59
2089	32.313.2–57.4
2090	38.717.6–59
2091	39.719.9–59.5
2092	3611.2–56.9
2093	33.515.1–59.4
2094	35.715.6–58.8
2095	38.616.4–56.3
2096	29.414.6–62
2097	3813.9–56.7
2098	39.816.7–57.8
2099	37.214.9–58.5
2100	39.418.3–56.7

Good to know

Nights in a year when the temperature stays above 20 °C, averaged over the country.
Source: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal, CMIP6 multi-model median.
The dashed line is the CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road), a scenario rather than a forecast; the band is its models’ 10th–90th percentile.
Climate model values are the median of the CMIP6 models, run on past emissions to 2014 and on SSP2-4.5, a middle-of-the-road path, after: they are not measurements.

How the layers work, where their data comes from and what they can’t tell you: Countries through time

Tropical nights in Serbia

What the numbers say

Every year

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