Tropical nights in China

Tropical nights in China: 34.9 nights in 1950 and 41.5 nights in 2014, in the CMIP6 climate models’ median run.

Latest, 2014: 41.5 nights; Modelled
Since 1950: +6.6 nights
Projected, 2100: 63.3 nights; CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road)

Watch it change on the map

nights a year · CMIP6

CMIP6 historical run, model medianCMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road)models’ 10th–90th percentile

What the numbers say

The CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) puts it at 63.3 nights in 2100, between 51.7 nights and 76.2 nights (models’ 10th–90th percentile).
The highest was 41.7 nights in 2013, the lowest 31.5 nights in 1983.

Every year

nights a year · CMIP6

Year	China
2014	41.5
2013	41.7
2012	40.8
2011	40.2
2010	40.5
2009	39.5
2008	39.2
2007	38.7
2006	39.5
2005	39.5
2004	39.7
2003	38.5
2002	38.8
2001	39.5
2000	38.6
1999	38.5
1998	37.6
1997	37.1
1996	36.6
1995	35.1
1994	34.9
1993	33.2
1992	32.3
1991	35.9
1990	36.4
1989	36.1
1988	35.1
1987	34.5
1986	34
1985	33.5
1984	33.4
1983	31.5
1982	34.1
1981	34.2
1980	34.3
1979	33.8
1978	34.8
1977	33.3
1976	32.7
1975	33.1
1974	33.3
1973	33.1
1972	32.6
1971	33
1970	32.4
1969	33.4
1968	32.8
1967	33.4
1966	33.4
1965	32.5
1964	32.1
1963	34.5
1962	34
1961	34.6
1960	34.1
1959	34
1958	35
1957	34.4
1956	34.6
1955	34.2
1954	34.2
1953	34.3
1952	34.3
1951	35.1
1950	34.9

CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) · 2015–2100

Year	China
2015	42.334.8–49.8
2016	42.134.4–50
2017	43.135.3–51.6
2018	42.335.5–49.5
2019	43.836.5–51.1
2020	43.736.8–51.1
2021	44.136–52.1
2022	44.737.5–52.7
2023	45.737.8–53.4
2024	45.738.1–54
2025	46.337.5–54.8
2026	46.237.6–55.5
2027	46.138–54.9
2028	46.438.4–54.3
2029	46.939.1–55.6
2030	47.138.8–55.3
2031	4738.8–56
2032	48.339.3–57.4
2033	47.939.7–56.6
2034	48.440.5–57.3
2035	49.740.8–58.6
2036	4940.1–58.2
2037	4941.2–57.6
2038	50.542.4–59.3
2039	49.641.2–59.2
2040	50.942.4–60.4
2041	51.342.5–61.1
2042	51.642–61.5
2043	50.742.7–61
2044	51.942.4–61.9
2045	51.542.8–61.1
2046	5343.7–62.7
2047	53.544.5–62.5
2048	53.144–62.6
2049	52.843.8–63.3
2050	53.644.4–63.8
2051	54.345.1–64.8
2052	53.444.6–63.2
2053	54.244.2–64.2
2054	54.545.3–64.8
2055	5545.1–65.8
2056	55.245.1–66.6
2057	54.844.9–65.7
2058	55.145.8–67.7
2059	55.345.1–67.2
2060	57.246.9–68.1
2061	56.546.6–66.3
2062	56.846.9–68.5
2063	57.247.2–68.6
2064	5747.1–67.7
2065	57.347.1–67.8
2066	57.347.9–68.7
2067	57.546.4–68.2
2068	58.748.5–70.5
2069	58.548.4–69
2070	5847.6–71.7
2071	59.347.4–71.6
2072	59.248.1–71.5
2073	59.849.1–70.9
2074	59.648.7–71.1
2075	58.748.3–71.4
2076	60.249–70.9
2077	60.851.1–72.4
2078	59.648.8–72.4
2079	60.750.1–72.6
2080	59.950–72.3
2081	60.950–73.2
2082	6149.8–73.3
2083	61.251.2–73.6
2084	61.749.7–74.6
2085	61.250.8–75.2
2086	61.648.9–74.5
2087	61.650.6–75
2088	62.750.5–77.1
2089	61.950–75.2
2090	62.551.4–73.7
2091	63.852–75.7
2092	63.251.2–75.1
2093	63.252–75.4
2094	6351.1–76.3
2095	63.952.8–76.4
2096	63.852.2–76.8
2097	62.750.7–75.1
2098	63.451.2–76.8
2099	63.851.9–76.1
2100	63.351.7–76.2

Good to know

Nights in a year when the temperature stays above 20 °C, averaged over the country.
Source: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal, CMIP6 multi-model median.
The dashed line is the CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road), a scenario rather than a forecast; the band is its models’ 10th–90th percentile.
Climate model values are the median of the CMIP6 models, run on past emissions to 2014 and on SSP2-4.5, a middle-of-the-road path, after: they are not measurements.

How the layers work, where their data comes from and what they can’t tell you: Countries through time

Tropical nights in China

What the numbers say

Every year

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