Kenya

Temperature in Kenya

Temperature in Kenya: 23.5 °C in 1950 and 25.9 °C in 2025, by ERA5 observations.

Latest, 2025
25.9 °C
Since 1950
+2.4 °C
Rank, 2025
80 of 233
counting from the highest
Projected, 2100
27.4 °C
CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road)

°C · ERA5

Temperature in KenyaTemperature in Kenya: 23.5 °C in 1950 and 25.9 °C in 2025, by ERA5 observations. The CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) puts it at 27.4 °C in 2100, between 26.5 °C and 28.4 °C (models’ 10th–90th percentile).
Observed, ERA5CMIP6 historical run, model medianCMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road)models’ 10th–90th percentile

What the numbers say

  • The CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) puts it at 27.4 °C in 2100, between 26.5 °C and 28.4 °C (models’ 10th–90th percentile).
  • The highest was 26.1 °C in 2024, the lowest 23.1 °C in 1953.

Every year

°C · ERA5

YearObserved, ERA5CMIP6 historical run, model median
202525.926
202426.126.2
202325.726
202225.725.9
202125.825.9
202025.525.9
201925.925.8
201825.125.9
201725.925.8
201625.825.7
201525.825.8
201425.525.7
201325.225.6
201225.425.6
201125.525.7
201025.525.6
200925.825.6
200825.325.5
200725.425.4
200625.425.5
200525.625.5
200425.325.5
200325.325.5
200225.125.5
20012525.6
200025.225.4
19992525.4
199824.825.4
199724.925.3
199625.125.3
199525.125.2
19942525.1
199324.725
199224.824.9
199124.825.2
199024.625.3
198924.425.2
19882525.2
198725.325.2
198624.625.2
198524.525
198424.725.1
198325.225
198224.625.1
198124.625.2
19802525.2
197924.225.1
197824.125.1
197724.325.1
197624.625
197524.425
197424.525
197325.125.1
197224.725
197124.325
197024.524.9
196924.624.9
196823.724.9
196724.224.8
196624.724.9
196524.324.9
19642424.7
196323.924.8
19622425
196124.325
196024.425
195924.625
195824.425
195724.125
195624.225
195524.325
19542425
195323.125
195223.525
195123.525
195023.525
  • 12.3Projected
CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) · 2026–2100
YearObserved, ERA5CMIP6 historical run, model median
2026–2625.4–26.7
2027–2625.4–26.6
2028–26.125.6–26.6
2029–26.225.6–26.7
2030–26.125.7–26.6
2031–26.225.8–26.7
2032–26.225.8–26.8
2033–26.325.7–26.8
2034–26.225.7–26.8
2035–26.325.7–26.8
2036–26.225.7–26.8
2037–26.325.8–26.9
2038–26.425.7–26.9
2039–26.425.8–26.8
2040–26.325.9–26.9
2041–26.525.8–27.2
2042–26.525.9–27.1
2043–26.325.8–27
2044–26.525.9–27
2045–26.526–27.2
2046–26.626–27.4
2047–26.726–27.3
2048–26.626.1–27.4
2049–26.826.1–27.4
2050–26.626.1–27.4
2051–26.826.1–27.4
2052–26.826.2–27.4
2053–26.726–27.3
2054–26.726–27.3
2055–26.826.1–27.4
2056–26.826–27.5
2057–26.826.3–27.6
2058–26.926.1–27.6
2059–26.926.2–27.7
2060–27.126.1–27.7
2061–2726.2–27.7
2062–26.926.2–27.8
2063–2726.4–27.6
2064–27.126.2–27.6
2065–2726.4–27.8
2066–2726.4–27.7
2067–27.126.3–27.8
2068–27.126.3–27.8
2069–2726.3–27.9
2070–2726.3–27.8
2071–27.226.4–28
2072–27.226.5–27.8
2073–27.226.5–28
2074–27.126.4–28
2075–27.126.3–28
2076–27.326.5–28.1
2077–27.326.5–28.1
2078–27.126.5–27.9
2079–27.326.5–28.1
2080–27.326.5–28.1
2081–27.326.6–28.1
2082–27.426.5–28.1
2083–27.326.6–28.4
2084–27.426.6–28.2
2085–27.326.6–28.3
2086–27.526.5–28.3
2087–27.426.6–28.3
2088–27.426.6–28.3
2089–27.426.7–28.1
2090–27.426.7–28.4
2091–27.626.6–28.4
2092–27.426.6–28.3
2093–27.526.7–28.3
2094–27.526.8–28.3
2095–27.626.7–28.4
2096–27.526.5–28.5
2097–27.526.5–28.3
2098–27.626.7–28.4
2099–27.526.5–28.6
2100–27.426.5–28.4

Good to know

  • The average air temperature near the ground, over the whole country and the whole year.
  • Source: ERA5 reanalysis (Copernicus, ECMWF) and CMIP6, via the World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
  • The dashed line is the CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road), a scenario rather than a forecast; the band is its models’ 10th–90th percentile.
  • Climate model values are the median of the CMIP6 models, run on past emissions to 2014 and on SSP2-4.5, a middle-of-the-road path, after: they are not measurements.
  • Ranks count the 233 countries with a value in 2025, highest first.

How the layers work, where their data comes from and what they can’t tell you: Countries through time

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