France vs Monaco: Tropical nights

Tropical nights in 2014: 3.1 nights in France and 62 nights in Monaco, in the CMIP6 climate models’ median run. In 2014 the value was higher in Monaco, by 58.9 nights, or 20 times that in France.

Watch it change on the map

nights a year · CMIP6

FranceMonacoCMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road)models’ 10th–90th percentile

What the numbers say

Monaco has been higher in every year both have figures for since 1950.
The CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) puts France at 19.2 nights and Monaco at 113 nights in 2100.

Every year

nights a year · CMIP6

Year	France	Monaco
2014	3.1	62
2013	3.1	61
2012	2.9	57
2011	2.7	57
2010	3.9	66
2009	2.5	51
2008	2.4	61
2007	2.1	54
2006	2.6	58
2005	2.9	54
2004	2.7	56
2003	2.6	55
2002	1.8	50
2001	2.3	50
2000	1.8	51
1999	2.1	50
1998	1.5	50
1997	1.6	48
1996	1.5	43
1995	1.3	45
1994	1.5	40
1993	1.1	41
1992	1	37
1991	1.8	45
1990	1.9	43
1989	1.2	42
1988	1.2	42
1987	1.3	41
1986	0.9	36
1985	0.9	34
1984	1.1	38
1983	1.1	40
1982	1	33
1981	1.1	36
1980	1.2	37
1979	0.9	38
1978	1.3	45
1977	0.9	32
1976	0.8	31
1975	0.9	34
1974	1.2	39
1973	0.9	36
1972	0.9	37
1971	1	35
1970	0.9	36
1969	1	37
1968	0.9	28
1967	0.8	30
1966	0.8	31
1965	0.7	31
1964	1	30
1963	0.9	39
1962	1.1	41
1961	0.9	36
1960	1.1	33
1959	1.2	42
1958	1	34
1957	1	36
1956	1.2	42
1955	1.1	43
1954	1.3	38
1953	1	34
1952	1.3	43
1951	1.1	43
1950	1.2	38

CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) · 2015–2100

Year	France	Monaco
2015	3.61.5–8.6	7054–82
2016	4.11.5–9.9	6752–89
2017	3.51.3–10.2	7148–84
2018	3.91.7–10.8	6653–89
2019	4.51.6–9	7355–91
2020	4.11.6–10.5	7046–90
2021	4.51.3–13.2	7237–96
2022	51.5–12.5	7648–103
2023	4.81.6–12.5	7352–88
2024	5.51.8–11.2	7653–96
2025	5.81.5–12.1	7851–107
2026	6.22.1–12.7	8260–101
2027	5.41.7–11.2	7761–99
2028	5.91.7–13.3	8059–101
2029	6.31.9–12.6	8456–101
2030	5.82.1–11.9	8160–105
2031	5.92–11.8	8260–109
2032	5.92.7–12.9	8562–106
2033	72.5–13.6	8260–97
2034	7.92.4–17.3	8256–105
2035	6.92.4–14.4	8773–107
2036	7.32.6–14.6	8764–114
2037	7.32.6–13.3	8465–100
2038	6.53–15.1	8366–108
2039	6.92.6–14.3	8370–104
2040	7.72.3–16	8466–103
2041	8.12.6–15.2	8463–105
2042	6.93–16	8769–101
2043	7.92.8–15.6	8762–109
2044	7.93.1–16.6	8464–104
2045	9.23.2–19.6	9173–103
2046	8.93.2–17.6	8864–105
2047	9.74–19.2	9570–116
2048	9.13.4–17	9269–111
2049	10.13.7–20.8	8981–112
2050	10.94.8–18.9	9678–121
2051	9.23.5–18.4	9172–117
2052	103.4–21.2	9370–119
2053	8.73.8–18	9581–110
2054	9.74.4–19.2	10075–112
2055	9.93.9–17.2	10578–117
2056	114.3–21.8	9682–121
2057	10.94.2–19.8	9477–116
2058	13.85.1–25.7	10086–121
2059	11.23.3–25	9576–122
2060	12.86.1–22	10383–113
2061	12.64.7–23.2	9981–126
2062	12.36.2–22.4	10083–115
2063	125.2–24.9	10688–125
2064	125.3–21.6	10479–116
2065	12.53.9–30.8	9875–120
2066	11.55.3–22.1	10169–127
2067	18.38.1–33.3	10288–124
2068	135.4–23.4	10184–119
2069	15.65.7–25.5	10683–130
2070	13.55.2–29.1	10079–125
2071	154.4–30.2	10984–127
2072	15.57.4–26	10584–121
2073	13.96–29.1	10386–115
2074	12.84.3–27.3	10171–121
2075	13.96.3–25.6	10483–121
2076	166.1–33.8	10689–121
2077	13.25–29.8	9983–122
2078	13.75.1–33.6	10886–131
2079	12.95.3–28.4	10485–123
2080	14.45.4–27.9	10887–133
2081	15.15.8–29.8	10792–127
2082	16.46.1–33.9	10991–125
2083	15.97.9–32	11394–125
2084	14.16.6–27.7	11092–130
2085	16.57.3–30.2	11193–123
2086	19.55.5–32.4	11191–131
2087	196.9–38	11395–138
2088	18.47.7–35.2	11390–128
2089	1910.6–29.3	11298–127
2090	16.36.8–33.5	10991–131
2091	19.77.6–32.3	11091–134
2092	17.36.1–32.7	11287–133
2093	156.5–29.8	10782–127
2094	18.68.5–32.8	10783–120
2095	19.25.9–38.9	10792–128
2096	19.37.6–35.5	11283–135
2097	17.36.2–36.1	11189–136
2098	18.16.9–36.3	11191–136
2099	20.37.4–34.6	11691–132
2100	19.27–36.7	11380–133

Each country on its own

Good to know

Nights in a year when the temperature stays above 20 °C, averaged over the country.
Source: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal, CMIP6 multi-model median.
The dashed line is the CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road), a scenario rather than a forecast; the band is its models’ 10th–90th percentile.
Climate model values are the median of the CMIP6 models, run on past emissions to 2014 and on SSP2-4.5, a middle-of-the-road path, after: they are not measurements.

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