Temperature in Portugal

Temperature in Portugal: 14.9 °C in 1950 and 16.2 °C in 2025, by ERA5 observations.

Latest, 2025: 16.2 °C
Since 1950: +1.3 °C
Projected, 2100: 17.6 °C; CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road)

°C · ERA5

Observed, ERA5CMIP6 historical run, model medianCMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road)models’ 10th–90th percentile

What the numbers say

The CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) puts it at 17.6 °C in 2100, between 16.7 °C and 18.9 °C (models’ 10th–90th percentile).
The highest was 16.4 °C in 2022, the lowest 12.9 °C in 1978.

Every year

°C · ERA5

Year	Observed, ERA5	CMIP6 historical run, model median
2025	16.2	16.2
2024	16.1	16
2023	16.3	16.1
2022	16.4	16.1
2021	15.4	16
2020	15.9	16
2019	15.4	16.1
2018	15.1	15.9
2017	16.1	16
2016	15.6	16
2015	15.7	15.9
2014	15.3	15.6
2013	15.1	15.7
2012	14.9	15.5
2011	15.7	15.5
2010	15.3	15.5
2009	15.6	15.6
2008	14.8	15.5
2007	14.9	15.4
2006	15.7	15.5
2005	15.3	15.5
2004	15.2	15.6
2003	15.5	15.5
2002	15.2	15.6
2001	15.2	15.5
2000	15.1	15.4
1999	15	15.5
1998	15.4	15.2
1997	16	15.1
1996	15	15.1
1995	16.2	15.1
1994	15.1	14.9
1993	14.2	14.9
1992	14.8	14.7
1991	15.1	15.1
1990	15.5	15.3
1989	15.9	15.2
1988	14.9	15.1
1987	15.5	15.1
1986	14.5	14.7
1985	15	14.8
1984	14.4	14.8
1983	14.7	14.8
1982	14.8	14.9
1981	15.3	14.9
1980	14.6	14.9
1979	14.4	14.9
1978	12.9	14.9
1977	14.1	14.8
1976	14.3	14.6
1975	14.1	14.9
1974	14.2	14.9
1973	14.4	14.6
1972	13.6	14.8
1971	13.9	14.6
1970	14.5	14.7
1969	14.2	14.6
1968	14.8	14.6
1967	14.4	14.7
1966	14.8	14.6
1965	14.6	14.5
1964	14.7	14.8
1963	14.5	14.8
1962	14.8	14.8
1961	15.6	14.8
1960	14.6	14.6
1959	14.8	14.8
1958	14.6	14.8
1957	14.6	14.6
1956	13.5	14.8
1955	15.6	14.9
1954	14.4	14.7
1953	15	14.7
1952	14.4	14.8
1951	14.3	14.7
1950	14.9	14.9

12.3Projected

CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) · 2026–2100

Year	Observed, ERA5	CMIP6 historical run, model median
2026	–	16.115.6–17
2027	–	16.515.7–17.1
2028	–	16.215.3–17.3
2029	–	16.215.2–17
2030	–	16.215.3–17
2031	–	16.215.5–16.9
2032	–	16.515.6–17.1
2033	–	16.315.7–17
2034	–	16.515.9–17.1
2035	–	16.415.5–17.1
2036	–	16.515.7–17.4
2037	–	16.515.8–17.2
2038	–	16.516–17.1
2039	–	16.515.8–17.2
2040	–	16.315.4–17.4
2041	–	16.515.8–17.2
2042	–	16.415.7–17.4
2043	–	16.615.5–17.4
2044	–	16.615.8–17.4
2045	–	16.716–17.2
2046	–	16.615.9–17.6
2047	–	16.716–17.6
2048	–	16.816–17.4
2049	–	16.916.1–17.9
2050	–	16.916–17.8
2051	–	16.715.7–17.7
2052	–	16.715.9–17.5
2053	–	16.916–17.8
2054	–	1716–17.7
2055	–	1716.1–17.6
2056	–	16.716–17.6
2057	–	1715.9–18
2058	–	17.116–18.2
2059	–	16.916.2–18
2060	–	1716.6–17.8
2061	–	17.316.3–18.2
2062	–	17.315.8–18
2063	–	17.316.2–18
2064	–	16.916.2–18.1
2065	–	16.915.7–18.4
2066	–	17.216.2–18.1
2067	–	17.116.2–18.1
2068	–	1716.1–18.3
2069	–	17.416.2–18.2
2070	–	17.316.4–18.4
2071	–	17.316.3–18.1
2072	–	17.316.1–18.3
2073	–	17.516.5–18.5
2074	–	17.416.5–18.3
2075	–	17.216.2–18
2076	–	17.316.4–18.4
2077	–	17.316.1–18.4
2078	–	17.116.3–18.5
2079	–	17.216.3–18.5
2080	–	17.316.5–18.4
2081	–	17.216.4–18.5
2082	–	17.316.5–18.4
2083	–	17.516.8–18.5
2084	–	17.416.7–18.4
2085	–	17.516.8–18.6
2086	–	17.616.6–18.8
2087	–	17.716.9–18.8
2088	–	17.716.9–19.1
2089	–	17.416.6–18.5
2090	–	17.716.8–18.7
2091	–	17.716.6–18.6
2092	–	17.516.6–18.6
2093	–	17.616.7–18.4
2094	–	17.416.3–18.8
2095	–	17.616.3–18.9
2096	–	17.916.2–18.7
2097	–	17.516.5–18.7
2098	–	17.816.4–18.6
2099	–	17.616.8–18.9
2100	–	17.616.7–18.9

Good to know

The average air temperature near the ground, over the whole country and the whole year.
Source: ERA5 reanalysis (Copernicus, ECMWF) and CMIP6, via the World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
The dashed line is the CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road), a scenario rather than a forecast; the band is its models’ 10th–90th percentile.
Climate model values are the median of the CMIP6 models, run on past emissions to 2014 and on SSP2-4.5, a middle-of-the-road path, after: they are not measurements.
Ranks count the 233 countries with a value in 2025, highest first.

How the layers work, where their data comes from and what they can’t tell you: Countries through time

Temperature in Portugal

What the numbers say

Every year

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