Tropical nights in Portugal

Tropical nights in Portugal: 5 nights in 1950 and 8.9 nights in 2014, in the CMIP6 climate models’ median run.

Latest, 2014: 8.9 nights; Modelled
Since 1950: +3.9 nights
Projected, 2100: 32.7 nights; CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road)

Watch it change on the map

nights a year · CMIP6

CMIP6 historical run, model medianCMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road)models’ 10th–90th percentile

What the numbers say

The CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) puts it at 32.7 nights in 2100, between 16.6 nights and 60.5 nights (models’ 10th–90th percentile).
The highest was 11 nights in 2013, the lowest 3.1 nights in 1971.

Every year

nights a year · CMIP6

Year	Portugal
2014	8.9
2013	11
2012	8.4
2011	8.3
2010	8
2009	9.1
2008	8.3
2007	8.2
2006	9.9
2005	10.2
2004	8.6
2003	6.4
2002	8.4
2001	8.5
2000	7.1
1999	7.9
1998	6.1
1997	6
1996	5.9
1995	5.4
1994	5.3
1993	4.9
1992	4.6
1991	5.8
1990	5.9
1989	6.1
1988	6.7
1987	5.9
1986	4.4
1985	3.8
1984	3.9
1983	3.5
1982	3.9
1981	4.3
1980	4.6
1979	4.9
1978	5.4
1977	5.3
1976	3.7
1975	4.5
1974	5.1
1973	4.4
1972	3.6
1971	3.1
1970	3.5
1969	3.5
1968	4.1
1967	4.3
1966	3.6
1965	3.8
1964	4
1963	3.5
1962	4
1961	4.5
1960	4.3
1959	4.4
1958	4.3
1957	4.3
1956	4.8
1955	5.3
1954	3.8
1953	4.1
1952	5
1951	4.8
1950	5

CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) · 2015–2100

Year	Portugal
2015	9.43.5–20.8
2016	10.34.5–24.3
2017	10.53.4–20.4
2018	12.75–22.8
2019	11.84.8–22.7
2020	11.74.2–21
2021	12.45–23.7
2022	12.63.7–28.4
2023	12.85–26.8
2024	146–25.2
2025	12.85–27
2026	13.14.9–24.5
2027	14.96.2–29.8
2028	14.24.7–28.8
2029	14.63.9–29.5
2030	13.75.7–28
2031	15.15.7–29.2
2032	15.77.3–29.6
2033	15.27.4–30.1
2034	17.97.1–33.7
2035	166.4–28
2036	186.9–29.3
2037	186.4–31.9
2038	16.68.6–31.6
2039	178.4–30.3
2040	14.64.6–29.1
2041	17.47.4–28.1
2042	16.57.6–30.1
2043	19.38.9–34
2044	17.98.7–29.9
2045	20.38–37.2
2046	19.210.1–34.4
2047	19.19–36.2
2048	20.39–33
2049	22.99.6–37.8
2050	23.612–45.8
2051	19.87–36.6
2052	20.98.5–40.7
2053	22.49.7–38.6
2054	21.19.4–36.7
2055	20.98.3–37.1
2056	21.810.3–39.6
2057	23.710.6–40.7
2058	23.79.8–40.6
2059	24.510.8–42.2
2060	26.513.1–42.5
2061	30.315.3–47.5
2062	24.212.1–44.8
2063	28.410–48.2
2064	24.710.8–48.4
2065	23.69–53.6
2066	28.113.3–45.9
2067	26.813.4–44.5
2068	25.810.8–49.6
2069	28.212.4–48.6
2070	28.313.4–51.9
2071	26.912.2–50.6
2072	29.714–51.9
2073	31.213–55.7
2074	28.213.4–48.8
2075	27.812.1–46.7
2076	28.813–55.8
2077	32.113.4–50.8
2078	30.212.7–52.8
2079	27.612.5–48.2
2080	31.214.9–54
2081	30.314.6–52.3
2082	30.912.8–46.6
2083	33.215.1–53.3
2084	31.616.5–50.1
2085	32.215.9–57.9
2086	40.312.5–61.2
2087	36.814.6–63.1
2088	35.514.3–56.2
2089	32.814–53.5
2090	34.515.1–64.4
2091	35.316–57.3
2092	3414.6–59.9
2093	33.416.6–51.6
2094	35.313.2–59.6
2095	34.215–59.2
2096	37.917–57.7
2097	35.615.2–59.9
2098	32.714.1–62.8
2099	37.719.3–59.8
2100	32.716.6–60.5

Good to know

Nights in a year when the temperature stays above 20 °C, averaged over the country.
Source: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal, CMIP6 multi-model median.
The dashed line is the CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road), a scenario rather than a forecast; the band is its models’ 10th–90th percentile.
Climate model values are the median of the CMIP6 models, run on past emissions to 2014 and on SSP2-4.5, a middle-of-the-road path, after: they are not measurements.

How the layers work, where their data comes from and what they can’t tell you: Countries through time

Tropical nights in Portugal

What the numbers say

Every year

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