Temperature in Estonia

Temperature in Estonia: 5.3 °C in 1950 and 7.8 °C in 2025, by ERA5 observations.

°C · ERA5

Observed, ERA5CMIP6 historical run, model medianCMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road)models’ 10th–90th percentile

What the numbers say

The CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) puts it at 9.1 °C in 2100, between 7.5 °C and 10.4 °C (models’ 10th–90th percentile).
The highest was 8.3 °C in 2020, the lowest 3.5 °C in 1956.

°C · ERA5

Year	Observed, ERA5	CMIP6 historical run, model median
2025	7.8	6.8
2024	8	6.4
2023	7.1	6.6
2022	7	7.3
2021	6.5	7
2020	8.3	6.7
2019	7.4	6.5
2018	7.1	6.3
2017	6.4	6.4
2016	6.5	6.5
2015	7.4	6.4
2014	6.9	6.7
2013	6.7	6.5
2012	5.4	6.2
2011	7	6.1
2010	5	6.4
2009	6	6.1
2008	7.3	6.5
2007	6.9	6
2006	6.7	6.3
2005	6.1	6.1
2004	6	6
2003	5.9	6.1
2002	6.4	5.8
2001	6.1	5.9
2000	7.1	6
1999	6.6	5.7
1998	5.5	6
1997	6	5.5
1996	4.7	5.9
1995	6.3	5.6
1994	5.5	5.4
1993	5.2	5
1992	6.6	5.2
1991	6.4	5.3
1990	6.9	5.8
1989	7.4	5.5
1988	5.9	5.5
1987	3.5	5.2
1986	5.2	5.5
1985	3.9	5.4
1984	5.9	4.4
1983	6.4	4.9
1982	5.7	4.9
1981	5.3	4.9
1980	4.5	5.1
1979	4.9	5.2
1978	3.9	5.1
1977	4.8	5
1976	3.9	4.8
1975	7	4.9
1974	6.3	5.3
1973	5.5	4.9
1972	5.9	4.9
1971	5.5	4.8
1970	4.3	4.4
1969	3.7	4.6
1968	4.7	5.1
1967	5.5	4.8
1966	4.1	5
1965	4.5	5
1964	5.1	5
1963	4.2	5.1
1962	4.6	4.6
1961	6.5	4.8
1960	4.8	5
1959	5.8	4.7
1958	4.3	5
1957	5.6	4.7
1956	3.5	5.3
1955	4.3	4.7
1954	5	4.8
1953	5.6	4.9
1952	4.4	5.1
1951	5.1	4.8
1950	5.3	5.1

CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road) · 2026–2100

Year	Observed, ERA5	CMIP6 historical run, model median
2026	–	76.2–8.4
2027	–	75.8–8.4
2028	–	7.36.1–8.7
2029	–	7.26.1–8.8
2030	–	7.46–8.5
2031	–	7.25.6–8.3
2032	–	7.66–8.6
2033	–	7.46.6–9
2034	–	7.26.6–8.7
2035	–	7.46.2–8.8
2036	–	7.86–9.2
2037	–	7.36.2–8.8
2038	–	7.35.8–9.2
2039	–	7.36–8.8
2040	–	7.96.4–9
2041	–	7.76.1–8.9
2042	–	7.46.1–9.4
2043	–	86.6–9.6
2044	–	7.15.6–9.5
2045	–	7.85.8–9.4
2046	–	7.26.4–9.2
2047	–	86.6–9.6
2048	–	8.47–9.5
2049	–	86.3–9.7
2050	–	86.9–9.6
2051	–	86.5–9.7
2052	–	7.96.5–9.6
2053	–	8.16.7–9.6
2054	–	7.76.6–9.3
2055	–	7.86.3–9.4
2056	–	8.27–9.9
2057	–	8.16.8–9.5
2058	–	8.76.9–10.1
2059	–	8.17.2–10.2
2060	–	8.27.1–9.8
2061	–	8.47.1–9.5
2062	–	8.66.6–10.3
2063	–	8.37–10.2
2064	–	8.56.7–9.5
2065	–	8.56.5–9.7
2066	–	8.56.8–9.7
2067	–	87.2–10
2068	–	8.36.9–10.2
2069	–	8.86.7–10.4
2070	–	8.76.5–9.9
2071	–	8.46.5–10.6
2072	–	8.67–9.8
2073	–	8.46.6–9.9
2074	–	8.77.4–9.9
2075	–	8.16.9–9.8
2076	–	8.87.1–10.4
2077	–	8.87.4–10.2
2078	–	8.67.1–10.2
2079	–	8.86.7–10.5
2080	–	8.76.7–10.2
2081	–	8.76.9–10.3
2082	–	8.96.6–10.9
2083	–	8.46.7–10.9
2084	–	8.67–10.3
2085	–	8.66.7–10.6
2086	–	9.17.5–10.6
2087	–	97–11.1
2088	–	8.87.1–10.6
2089	–	8.87.3–10
2090	–	8.86.8–10.1
2091	–	9.16.5–10.7
2092	–	9.37.5–10.7
2093	–	9.27.6–10.9
2094	–	8.96.9–10.7
2095	–	9.37.6–10.8
2096	–	8.86.9–10.4
2097	–	8.97.8–11
2098	–	9.17–10.8
2099	–	97.4–10.9
2100	–	9.17.5–10.4

The average air temperature near the ground, over the whole country and the whole year.
Source: ERA5 reanalysis (Copernicus, ECMWF) and CMIP6, via the World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
The dashed line is the CMIP6 model median (SSP2-4.5, middle of the road), a scenario rather than a forecast; the band is its models’ 10th–90th percentile.
Climate model values are the median of the CMIP6 models, run on past emissions to 2014 and on SSP2-4.5, a middle-of-the-road path, after: they are not measurements.
Ranks count the 233 countries with a value in 2025, highest first.

How the layers work, where their data comes from and what they can’t tell you: Countries through time